Uncertainty is the most certain thing about stock market. Lots of people take wrong decision because of macro uncertainties. GDP going down, inflation up, dollar index up , problem in Greece, slow down in China and blah blah blah are these things going to kill my portfolio ? Investors gets carried away with these things and take wrong decision. Lets check out the Golden words of King on investing Warren Buffet.
The world’s always uncertain. The world was uncertain on December 6th, 1941, we just didn’t know it. The world was uncertain on October 18th, 1987, you know, we just didn’t know it. The world was uncertain on September 10th, 2001, we just didn’t know it. The world – there’s always uncertainty. Now the question is, what do you do with your money? And if you – the one thing is if you leave it in your pocket, it’ll become worth less – not worthless – worth less over time. That’s certain – that’s almost certain. You can put it in bonds and then you can get a certain 2 percent for 10 years and that’s almost certain to be less than the decline and the purchasing power. You can put it in farms and the farms will probably keep growing corn and soybeans and they’ll grow it whether, you know, whether Italy has trouble tomorrow or not. It’s very interesting to me, if you own a farm and somebody said, you know, Italy’s got problems. Do you sell your farm tomorrow?
If you own a good business locally in Omaha and somebody says Italy’s got problems tomorrow, do you sell your business? Do you sell your apartment house? No. But for some reason, people think if they own wonderful businesses indirectly through stocks, they’ve got to make a decision every five minutes. So I do not think if Ben Bernanke comes up and whispers to me that he’s going to do X, Y or Z tomorrow, I’m not going to change my view about what businesses I want to own. I want – I’m going to own those businesses for years just like I would own a farm or an apartment house and they’ll be all kinds of events and there’ll be all kinds of uncertainties and in the end, what will really count is how that business or farm or apartment house does over the years.
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I don’t think about the macro stuff. What you really want to do in investments is figure out what is important and knowable. If it is unimportant or unknowable, you forget about it. What you are talking about is important but is not knowable…. We don’t want to pass up the chance to do something intelligent because of some prediction about something that we are no good at anyway
That factor so overrides anything else. If you’re right about the business, you’ll make a lot of money … the timing part of it is a very tricky thing. I don’t worry about any given event if I have a wonderful business … With a wonderful business, you can figure out what will happen, you cannot figure out when it will happen. You don’t want to focus too much on “when”, you want to focus on “what”. If you’re right about “what”, you don’t have to worry about “when” very much